Can teams afford to go all-out to buy back their players? Is there a premium on certain skillsets? And how old is too old?
Nagraj Gollapudi and Gaurav Sundararaman11-Feb-20229:32
Runorder: Who will be the most expensive player in the 2022 IPL auction?
Could this be the most open IPL auction? While all ten franchises have varying purses, none of them have enough of a core around which they can build the rest of their squads. There are no right-to-match cards, which in the past had allowed teams to retain as many as five players and complete the rest of their squads at the auction. This time, several quality overseas players are also absent. That will put the focus on the Indian talent pool, which remains vast in terms of numbers. The marquee set is small, and some of the most-wanted players will arrive in later sets. The IPL 2022 auction is certainly going to test the planning and strategy of franchises like never before. Here are some key pointers they will pay attention to, as they prepare to raise the paddle.Should teams go all out to rebuild their core?
Chennai Super Kings, Mumbai Indians, Delhi Capitals and Kolkata Knight Riders have each retained the maximum allowable limit of four players. The comfort pill of a right-to-match card doesn’t exist anymore, with two new teams added to the IPL. This means teams now need a Plan B, which could include spending more money for a player they want to buy back.Take Mumbai for example. Ideally, they would want to procure the wicketkeeper-batter pair of Quinton de Kock and Ishan Kishan, who were among their best performers in the 2018-21 period. But while de Kock is in the opening set of marquee players, Kishan is listed in the fourth set as player No. 32. A safe move would have Mumbai pick one of the two. In either player’s case, though, Mumbai may need to spend big money as both are potential big buys, with ESPNcricinfo experts predicting Kishan to be the auction’s most expensive buy. But if Mumbai were to not bid high for de Kock to keep their purse healthy for Kishan, it would be a big gamble, since more than one rival franchise could still have a stronger purse than Mumbai’s, and they might end up missing out on both.Ishan Kishan and Quinton de Kock are both likely to be in high demand•BCCISimilarly, for the Capitals, four of their core group of players from last season – R Ashwin, Shreyas Iyer, Shikhar Dhawan and Kagiso Rabada – come in the marquee set while Avesh Khan is slotted at 85, in set 10. All these players along with the retained four played key roles in Capitals making their first final last year. Both Mumbai and Capitals have smaller purses in INR 48 crore and INR 47.5 crore respectively. While they could both bid aggressively for one of their former players, they would be wise to acknowledge that rival franchises would want those same players, which will automatically raise their prices. Also both these franchises should expect rivals to up their bids solely to eat into their purses. Understanding and recognising patterns of rival teams in past auctions, and being willing to pick a back-up option in case the first choice player crosses the amount reserved for him will ensure teams stay ahead of their rivals.Is a fat purse a clear advantage?
Not really. Take Punjab Kings and Sunrisers Hyderabad, who will walk into the auction with the top two purses at INR 72 crore and INR 68 crore respectively. Punjab have retained just two players – one capped (Mayank Agarwal) and another uncapped (Arshdeep Singh). They are starting from scratch, almost.Related
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While they could show keenness to buy virtually every player in the top sets, they could potentially burn their cash quickly if they overspend on a player or two. For Sunrisers, having failed to retain a proven matchwinner in Rashid Khan, they will want to seek a replacement. But if they were to bid hard for, say Yuzvendra Chahal, they would still need to wait for Set 6 where the India legspinner is listed as Player No. 47. And there is no guarantee they will bag Chahal, with plenty of other franchises expected to show interest in him too.The other challenge for Sunrisers is that while they have retained three players, two of them are the uncapped Abdul Samad and Umran Malik. Just like Punjab, they will need to buy players up front, which is likely to bring down their purse by the time Chahal’s name is put up for bidding. Instead, one potential solution could be to bid for Ashwin as their lead spinner, with the India allrounder also capable of being the back-up captain for Kane Williamson.How should the budget be spent?
The unique challenge in big auctions for franchises is splitting the purse among all the roles and players they want. When you look at the roster, those who are likely to attract the maximum value are wicketkeeper-batters, Indian quicks and spinners.There are seven teams who could do with an Indian wristspinner, but among the first 55 names in the auction, there are just four. The franchises who miss out on these four players could struggle to find a wristspinner of the same pedigree. So one approach could be for teams to spend a lot of their budget up front to get the best possible players for the roles they want, and then pick up bargain buys as back-ups. This is where player scouting becomes very important. If franchises can identify a few skillsets and players that can be obtained at base price, they can spend more early on in a targeted manner. Teams need to focus on obtaining their first 11-15 players as much as possible from the first few sets, due to a lack of options down the pecking order. The price points at which a franchise can buy the top five players in each skillset could almost be 2-3 times what they would pay to get the next five in the same skillset. As a result, expect teams to spend almost 90% of their budgets on their first 11 players. If all teams think similarly, then the players are the ones likely to gain the most as bids shoot up.Yuzvendra Chahal and Deepak Chahar both offer premium skill-sets in short supply•AFP via Getty ImagesHow valuable are established Indian players?
Teams like the Super Kings, the Knight Riders, the Capitals and Mumbai have figured out that the best template to build a successful squad is to build a strong core of Indian players. But are there enough Indian players for all roles and for all teams to have that core of five or six players? Right now, not so much. Therefore, with more teams chasing fewer players, franchises will have to pay a premium. Teams such as Mumbai and Super Kings don’t have the reputation of breaking the bank for certain players, but they may be forced to bid huge this time around. Proven performers such as Deepak Chahar, Shardul Thakur, Prasidh Krishna, Nitish Rana and Rahul Tripathi could fetch high prices with more teams chasing their skillsets. Similarly, there a sheer lack of spinners and wicketkeeper-batters in the auction roster, and that increases the prices of those skillsets. With an eye on the future, teams could also look at investing in a few Indian youngsters who could come at a much lower price. Don’t be surprised if most Indian players rake in a lot more money than you expect.Suresh Raina, Dwayne Bravo, Bhuvneshwar Kumar – still worthy?
These three players have not just won matches, but have helped their franchises win IPL trophies in the past. But these three, along with other senior players like Amit Mishra, Piyush Chawla, Ambati Rayudu, Robin Uthappa and Ishant Sharma, are not only on the wrong side of 30, but have struggled with fitness and form issues. Most of these players have also listed their base prices at the maximum, but are they worth that amount? Is the experience worth it?It’s a difficult question to answer, but experience, as the Super Kings have shown, can help you walk out of difficult situations. If Faf du Plessis was among their best batters last season, Uthappa played the most important knocks in the qualifier and final. While Uthappa was traded from Royals for INR 3 crore, du Plessis was bought for just INR 1.6 crore. Expect franchises to keep these examples, and many others from previous seasons, in mind, and not look at age in a simplistic manner.
