The Rams have cost the sportsbooks plenty of money the past two weeks due to improbable game-winning plays that swung in the direction of the public.
After it appeared the Colts were going to at least cover as 3.5-point underdogs, Matthew Stafford connected with unheralded receiver Tutu Atwell for an 88-yard touchdown to eventually give the Rams a 27–20 victory.
This was the opposite result of what happened to the Rams the prior week, when they lost in Philadelphia due to Jordan Davis’s blocked field goal and touchdown return, which gave Eagles bettors the -3.5 cover against the spread.
For the sportsbooks, it was the same end result, with public bettors cashing in after sweating for nearly four quarters.
“The one that really hurt us in the afternoon was the Rams covering,” says John Murray, vice president of race and sports at the Westgate SuperBook. “We would have been O.K. if they won, but the pass to Atwell was the cover.
“It was a pretty substantial swing. Biggest decision we had on any of the afternoon games.”
I joked with Murray that maybe public bettors might stay away from the matchup because the Rams were laying a sizable number at home against the short-handed 49ers. But even though this is a tough one to forecast, Murray is still expecting the public to bet big on this prime-time game.
“They don’t stay away from an isolated game,” Murray says. “A lot of moneyline and teasers will be on the Rams.”
At the time I spoke with Murray, laying seven points might not have seemed like a lot to the public because the 49ers will be without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle and Nick Bosa. Sure enough, after hanging up the phone with Murray, the line jumped to -9 in favor of the Rams. This might be one where the sharps and public see value betting against the wounded team.
There’s a good chance that the Rams beat up on the 49ers and once again cost the sportsbooks plenty of money, but maybe this time it won’t be in heartbreaking fashion with a game-changing play in the final two minutes.
On the other hand, the 49ers still have talented players available, including Christian McCaffrey and Fred Warner. Also, Mac Jones has played well in his two starts this season. Also, let’s not forget that San Francisco is 3–1 despite dealing with several injuries during the first month of the season. This is a well-coached team that usually finds a way to stay competitive regardless of who’s on the field.
I’ll go out on a limb and take the 49ers at +9 points. But the Westgate SuperBook did receive plenty of sharp money on the Rams when they were -3.5 favorites last week on the look-ahead line. Smart move by the sharps to jump on the early line because it was pretty obvious then that the Niners wouldn’t be at full strength for a game on a short week. There might have been more sharp play when the line moved from 7 to 9 points after the 49ers released their final injury report Wednesday afternoon.
“The point spread you’re seeing there is all based on the 49ers’ injury report,” Murray says.
With insight from Murray, here’s everything you need to know about the NFL Week 5 games.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 5
The sharps were all over the Broncos when they were getting spotted five and 4.5 points for Sunday’s road battle against the Eagles. The line favored Philadelphia by -3.5 points as of late Wednesday.
Murray is expecting this matchup to receive most of the money from the early slate of games on Sunday. He’s also anticipating a heavy amount of public money on the Eagles.
“I think Denver is a little better than what people think they are,” Murray says. “I know the public will be on Philly. We’ve already seen sharp guys take Denver and the points, so that’s probably the most important game in the morning for Sunday.”
I’m with the sharps on this one. The Broncos have the defense to disrupt Jalen Hurts, and more importantly, they’re physical enough to defend Philly’s lethal short-yardage game. Denver lost close ones to the Colts and Chargers before crushing the Bengals on Monday night.
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 5
The Westgate SuperBook made most of its money last week from the Vikings losing to the Steelers in Dublin.
Murray might need another Minnesota loss away from U.S. soil. The Vikings are -3.5 favorites for Sunday’s London game against rookie Dillon Gabriel and the Browns.
“We will almost certainly need Cleveland,” Murray says.
Yes, the Browns didn’t cover as heavy underdogs against the Lions and Ravens. But they came through for the sportsbooks during the upset win vs. the Packers in Week 3 and covered against the Bengals in Week 1. Gabriel could have a rough time making his debut against a fierce Vikings defense, but the Browns’ defense is just as good and capable of forcing Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy into killer mistakes.
The Cowboys nearly surpassed the money the Steelers made for the Westgate SuperBook, but it ended up being a small win because the 40–40 tie with the Packers led to many bettors cashing in on prop bets. Also, the moneyline Green Bay bettors ended up getting their money back.
“If Dallas would have won the game, I think it would have been our biggest single game NFL winner of the season,” Murray says. “With the game ending in a tie, we did O.K. on the game because, obviously, all the Green Bay bettors lost [against the spread].”
Maybe the Cowboys make it up by losing as 2.5-point road favorites against the winless Jets. After how well Dallas played vs. Green Bay, Murray says the public will be all over the Cowboys in Week 5.
Odds Movement NFL Week 5
Surprisingly, the Saints are -2 home favorites against the Giants despite New Orleans being winless and New York coming off the upset win vs. the Chargers.
Murray had an interesting explanation for why the market shifted to New Orleans being the favorite. He mentioned that a respected syndicate listed the Saints as one of their picks for Week 5, which led oddsmakers to believe that the public would see that and back New Orleans.
Initially, the Westgate SuperBook had it as a pick’em, but sharp money caused it to move to Giants -2 before the syndicate shared their picks Monday.
“A very respected syndicate that released Saints as one of their plays on Monday morning, so now the market has moved back the other way and now the Saints are a small favorite,” Murray says.
“I don’t think there’s a whole lot separating these two teams. You gotta also remember Malik Nabers, their best player, is out for the year.”
Big Bets on the Ravens without Lamar Jackson
All signs point to the Ravens being without Lamar Jackson and starting Cooper Rush for Sunday’s home game vs. the Texans.
But that hasn’t stopped some sharps from backing the Ravens. On Tuesday when Baltimore was a 2.5-point underdog, a respected player at the Westgate SuperBook put money down on the Ravens, who are now getting spotted 1.5 points.
It’s not wild to think the Ravens can pull off the upset. The Texans have struggled to score points all season and have only beaten the winless Titans this season. Stranger things have happened.
Manzano’s NFL Week 5 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Bills (-8.5) vs. Patriots
The Bills didn’t cover against the Saints (+16.5) and Dolphins (+12.5) the past two weeks, but I have a feeling Buffalo will step on the gas vs. the Patriots, a divisional rival that used to consistently punish them during the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era.
Maybe the Bills don’t care about what happened years ago. But they might be due for a dominant victory after back-to-back sluggish performances.
Enticing Bet: Jets (+2.5) vs. Cowboys
I can’t back the Cowboys when the public is on them. This could be a letdown game after all the emotion spent for Micah Parsons’s return last week in the 40–40 tie.
The Jets can’t defend, but Justin Fields, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall can hang in a potential shootout vs. Dallas.
Moneyline Dog: Browns (+185) vs. Vikings (London)
I’m going back to the well here with the Browns, who came through for me against the Packers and Bengals earlier this season. Cleveland doesn’t have enough offense to stay competitive vs. the Lions and Ravens.
Expect the Browns’ stacked defense to produce a few takeaways to keep this game close.
SuperDog: 49ers (+8.5) at Rams
The Rams could have easily lost to the Colts last week. This will be a tight battle between divisional rivals. It’s also not a stretch to say that Jones has played better than Purdy this season. Jones still has McCaffrey as a weapon to make up for all the injured wide receivers.
Not So Risky: Texans (-1.5) at Ravens
I know Murray mentioned some sharps have backed the Ravens here. I can’t get behind that decision, not when the Texans’ defense is good enough to shut down Rush at quarterback. Maybe Houston’s offense has turned a corner after beating up on Tennessee last week.
Stay Away: Buccaneers (+3.5) at Seahawks
I can’t get a read on this game. It’s tough to back the Buccaneers with all their injuries and having to travel across the country to a hostile environment. On the other hand, this number is too high for a Seahawks squad that still has plenty to prove. I don’t think they're that much better than the Bucs.
Parlay: Dolphins (-1.5) at Panthers; Lions (-10.5) at Bengals; Chiefs (-3.5) at Jaguars
I gotta brag here a bit because I never hit on parlays. I finally got one last week and now I’m living dangerously by backing three road favorites. What could go wrong?
Favorite Fave: Chargers (-2.5) vs. Commanders
The Chargers are a lot better than what they showed in the upset loss vs. the Giants. They’ll play better at home and don’t worry about Justin Herbert’s depleted offensive line. Washington doesn’t have any game-changing edge rushers.
Best Over/Under Total: Rams-49ers (under 44.5, -105)
This could turn into a field goal fest. The 49ers are short on playmakers and the Rams tend to go cold for long stretches, which occurred in Week 1 vs. the Texans and the second half against the Eagles in Week 3.
